Coronary artery disease (CAD) will be number one killer by 2030, accounting for 14% of all deaths world over. CAD is a condition whereby the blood vessels narrow down or are blocked due to cholesterol deposits, which affects the blood supply to the heart.

Based upon World Health Organization’s (WHO) statistics 2008, the recent health statistics of the 193 member states indicate that cerebrovascular diseases and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) will be the second and third positions. Both together account for 20.7% of all deaths in 2030.

The fourth deadliest killer, lower respiratory infections, will be responsible for 3.8% of all deaths in the year 2030. Tracheas, lung cancer and bronchus, when combined together, will be responsible for 3.4% of all deaths.

It was further observed that road traffic accidents will turn out to be the fifth major cause of death in 2030, going up the scale from ninth leading cause in 2004. Diabetes is expected to rank seventh as a killer in 2030. It ranked 12th in 2004. Alzheimer and other types of dementia will occur more frequently. It will go up from its 25th position in 2004 to 17th in 2030.

Violence had ranked 22nd in 2004 and will rank 16th as a major reason for deaths in 2030, causing 1.2% of all deaths. Deaths due to communicable diseases will decline faster. TB will rank 20 in 2030 as compared to being seventh major killer in 2004. Diorrheal diseases will come down to 23rd position in 2030 as the leading cause of death from fifth in 2004.

Deaths due to HIV/Aids will fall dramatically. It will decline to 1.2 million in 2030. No doubt, it will rise from 2.2 million in 2008 to 2.4 million in 2012.

Cancer, cardiovascular diseases and traffic accidents will together account for around 30% of all deaths. Deaths due to road traffic accidents will go up from 1.3 million in 2004 to 2.4 million in 2030. This is mainly due to motor vehicle ownership and use, which is linked to economic growth in low and middle- income countries.

Cancer of the stomach, colon, liver, colon, rectum, breast and oesophagus will together add up to nearly 10% of all deaths as compared to their original figure of 5% in 2004. Incidence of malaria will also come down by 2030.

Child mortality due to low and premature birth rate will also come down by 2030. Similarly, deaths due to neonatal infections will also scale down.

Source: TOI May 22nd 2008